Live radar over the district map
Weather right now, where our races are
Turnout vs. expectations: alert counties against the rest
Decision Desk HQ projects how many votes each county will cast. Before polls close that projection is the pre-election estimate; once votes are counted it moves with the count. The gap between the two is the turnout surprise. Weather would show up as a bigger shortfall in alert counties than elsewhere.
Who loses more?
The same shortfall split by how the county voted in 2024, each compared with no-alert counties of the same lean. If Trump counties under alerts fall further below their expected vote than no-alert Trump counties do, and Harris counties don't, the missing votes are in Republican-leaning places; that is where, not whose.
Same weather, different rules
Where a storm sits across a state line, the two sides are a natural experiment: same rain, different rules on mail ballots and early voting. States where most votes were already in before Tuesday should barely notice; states that vote mostly on Election Day should feel it.
Hypothesis testing in real time
Five claims from the turnout literature, re-estimated every five minutes as the count comes in: the counties in all 435 House races that are at least half counted, today's precipitation at each county's center (coverage shown below), and each state's mail and early-voting rules. The second test is a border-pair comparison: counties on either side of a state line where the rules change. Verdicts are deliberately soft; this is a live, self-selected sample re-tested all night, not a paper.